Marshall J. Vest is director of the Economic and Business Research Center (EBR) at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management. He addressed a joint luncheon of mortgage professionals from the Arizona Association of Mortgage Brokers and the Southern Arizona Mortgage Lenders. Mr. Vest showed great concern over the State’s inability to balance the budget and projects a long road ahead. He was optimistic on the economy saying the national recession ended sometime in May of 2009 and we are now out of our local recession. The Arizona economy is growing.

This week, mortgage rates will be impacted by economic data in home building and consumer prices. We are also looking at government actions to impact markets. Senator Dodd is due to unveil his plan for financial reform, but he has varying degrees of support. Indications are that his plan is a large departure from the version passed in the House last year. Any financial reform will have to be reconciled between both the House and Senate before it can make it to the president to sign.

We are also expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lay out a clearer plan for the Fed to exit the market and removing the trillions of dollars it as pumped into the economy. Although no immediate steps are expected, a more detailed plan will get investors’ attentions.

With St Patrick’s day falling in the middle of the week, maybe our luck will improve.

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